…the end of man is to know

In what is the most “No ‘Effing Way” of every “No ‘Effing Way” I have written, McCain has pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Everyone had Romney, Pawlenty, or Lieberman as the top 3 with Condi, Cantor, and Kay Bailey Hutchinson in the second tier. Instead, he completely hoodwinks the entire country and launches Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

I always thought she was a great pick, but her lack of media coverage and speculation made me think it wasn’t going to happen. Serious props to The Midnight Ride, who called Palin as a VP pick in late June. Also, Madison Classical Liberal talked about her in early July. Finally, Extremism in Defense of Liberty also called it in late June. I privately talked to Extremism, Midnight Ride, and The Silent Majority about it, but I didn’t have the onions. I was weak and didn’t want to the risk in formally endorsing her. I was wrong.

Palin is a TREMENDOUS pick for a ton of reasons, increasing in legitimacy:

1. She is a woman. There is no bigger middle finger to Obama’s “post-racial” campaign than putting a woman on the ticket. It’s hard to argue you have a monopoly on change when Palin is the first woman with a serious shot to be in the White House (no, Geraldine Ferraro does not count).

1A. Moreover, this could get the Hillary supporters. Clintonites have long argued that Obama and the media were sexist and unfairly cruel to Hillary. Now that Clinton is out of the race, female voters who want to fight sexism will be drawn to Palin. She has a son with Down’s Syndrome and is a former beauty queen. Palin is feminine and has definite appeal to disgruntled female voters looking for a role model.

1B. Palin is tough to beat in a debate. As someone who spent 5 years in speech and debate, I would dread going toe-to-toe with a female, especially an accomplished and intelligent one. It is hard to be a male and go offensive against a female. The fact of the matter is that anytime a guy gets aggressive, he runs the risk of being perceived as a know-it-all sexist pig. While Palin has to face the prospect of being seen as an icy bitch if she gets aggressive, this puts a huge burden on Biden in the VP debate.

1 C. Palin is EXTREMELY attractive. This is a stupid reason. Okay, it’s a really stupid reason. At the end of the day, thousands upon thousands of males will vote for “The Hot Chick”. I think it is exceedingly shallow to vote based on aesthetics, but if it means helping out the conservative movement, I won’t resist. Behold, the new White House Hottie:

2. Palin has real conservative credentials. Any Evangelicals who didn’t trust McCain, must vote GOP. Any small-government libertarians don’t have to waste a vote on Bob Barr. Palin took on the most corrupt state in the country, Alaska, at a time that what was really hard. Ted Stevens is terribly corrupt. The Murkowski family is a dynasty of corrupt, incompetent leaders. Palin has gotten rid of superfluous government expenditures and slashed the budget. She has sound energy policy and is the ultimate on how to reduce oil prices.

3. She balances out this ticket in a way that no other candidate could. Male-female. Old-young. Experienced-fresh. Senator-Governor. There is nothing “missing” from this ticket. There is no weak link that applies to both candidates. They have strengths which back up the other’s weaknesses. Even if Obama wants to hammer Palin on experience, it’s tough-sledding. Obama has 3.5 years of experience in the Senate and Palin as 1.5 years experience as Governor. That difference is relatively small. Also, Palin has been in the City Council from ‘92-’96 and served on Alaska’s Oil & Gas Commission, before resigning in protest of the lack of ethics. She is on the young side, but has achieved great things.

Perhaps Palin’s (and McCain’s) greatest achievement? Taking ALL of the wind out of Obama’s sails, bumping him from the top of the headlines and making this race even more competitive.

After watching Biden’s speech, I was pretty impressed. Not as a fan of Biden, but as a political observer. He hit all the notes that he had to and did everything he could. It was going to be interesting to see Biden’s style and I give him a ton of credit for last night.

As a self-professed moderate who happens to be the 3rd most liberal in the entire Senate, Biden couldn’t pander to the far left. As someone who said he would run on John McCain’s ticket, he had to temper the negativity. As someone who said Barack lacked the experience to lead, he needed to limit his own Oba-Mania.

Check. Check. Check.

Biden played it as a moderate Democrat. He harped on Iraq spending, the low minimum wage, outsourcing, oil profits, not privatizing Social Security, education spending, and bringing focus back on Afghanistan and Pakistan. He’s wrong on most, if not all, of these issues. However, he played some winning issues in a non-extremist way. Most importantly, he didn’t lose any credibility as an experienced moderate.

He handled McCain the best. He did throw out some red meat to his supporters. He did attack McCain on some of the comments he has made. However, this is the line that Democrats need to hit, “These times require more than a good soldier; they require a wise leader, a leader who can deliver change–the change everybody knows we need.” There it is. I think calling Obama “wise” is somewhere short of hilarious, but the mood is right. Biden, and now Obama, CAN’T HIT McCAIN ON PERSONAL ISSUES. The man has been through too much personally and politically to be attacked for partisanship or corruption or experience. Shifting the debate from personality and leadership to politics is exactly what Obama-Biden must do. Biden handled his friendship with McCain and campaign against McCain extremely well.

His support of Obama was also at the appropriate level. Biden will not be able to escape his criticism of Obama in the debates. His arguments were not policy, but overly questioned Obama’s ability to lead. Through his own overinflated sense of self, Biden now can argue that he brings the wisdom and experience to Obama’s vision and message. If the GOP can divide the ticket into: 1. Biden is a Washington insider who is very liberal and supported McCain before he supported Obama and 2. Obama has no idea what he is doing and no plan for the future, they win. If the Democrats can hold the ticket as a solitary unit, we’re in trouble.

As important as unity between Hillary supporters and Democrats is, I think ticket unity is more important. Biden recognizes that united they win, divided they lose. And in a speech that was short on vision, message, and style, Biden made a great stride in achieving unity.

Good luck tonight as you watch Obama. I heard that being so close to The Chosen One and hearing his clarion calls can cause people to speak in tongues, hyperventilate, or have heart attacks. .

Just so this post cannot be interpreted as support of Biden or Obama:

1. Biden wants to critique McCain on foreign policy?

Biden opposed the Persian Gulf War in 1991.

Biden supported the Iraq War that apparently only Obama had the fortitude to oppose (mind you, Obama wasn’t a Senator in 2002, so he never actually voted against the war)

Biden opposes McCain’s support of spending money in Iraq, but voted for the spending (Biden even criticized Obama for not supporting the spending because Obama wanted to withhold money necessary to safely and properly equip our soldiers)

Biden opposed the troop surge, which has been fantastically successful

Biden opposes free trade agreements, like NAFTA. Since NAFTA was passed in 1994, the American economy has grown by 50%!!!! Those kinds of gains are only possible when countries can freely swap goods and maximize profits.

Biden wants to tax oil companies for offering a fair service at market value. The real “audacity” is not of hope, but of the idea that the government can arbitrarily declare when companies make too much money, seize that money, and give it to constituents.

Biden is too afraid to let Social Security money enter the economy and spur economic growth instead of being a lender for pet projects. He also fails to recognize the impending collapse of the system unless we start making fundamental changes soon.

Despite being John F Kennedy 2.0 (or so we’re told), Barack Obama makes a few too many mistakes. And by “mistakes” I don’t mean calling Pennsylvanians desperate voters who cling to guns and religion. I mean actual mistakes. Things that he doesn’t believe in, but inadvertently says or suggests.

For whatever reason, Barack seriously struggles with the locations of his speeches. Last night he did it again, unclear which city in Missouri he was in (hint: there are only two! it’s 50/50, Barack!) Here a few of his recent missteps:

1. Joe Biden will be elected president (interesting)

2. Obama visits 57 states (Heinz varieties or US states…they’re so damn similar!)

2A. Eau Claire, Wisconsin is actually a state…(does this count to the 57 or is it the missing 58th?)

3. Obama’s uncle liberates Auschwitz (actually, Auschwitz was liberated by the Soviets and Obama’s mother never had a brother. So an imaginary uncle joined the Red Army. Somehow, I’m not surprised)

4. Obama on Iraq (Not even Two-Face could make heads or tails of this one)

5. Last night, Obama couldn’t decide if he’s in St. Louis or Kansas City (note: he needs his daughter to ask him what city he is in so he can get his facts right). I’m not sure which I’m more concerned about: Barack taking advice from Michelle or Barack NEEDING advice from a 7 year old.

6. Obama suggests that having a baby is a punishment (Some parents ground their kids. Others use spanking. Barack forces pregnancy)

7. Obama makes myriad “mistakes” and suggests he is not ready to run for president in 2008

I think I finally figured it all out: it’s because his name isn’t really Barack OBAMA. It’s actually:

Two months ago, this race was absolutely over. McCain trailed by double digits and electoral projections had Obama winning by roughly 75 electoral votes. Virginia was undoubtedly blue, Georgia was a serious toss-up, and Badlands region was under attack. Over the summer, John McCain has completely turned this race on its head. The south is unquestionably Republican. The Badlands have been saved. Alaska is firmly Red. Virginia is thrown back into the toss-up. Florida is leaning slightly to the GOP. In fact, RealClear Politics actually has McCain ahead in the electoral college! While Republicans dance in the street, the real question is HOW DID THIS HAPPEN?

It is only through understanding, and my glorious collection of past posts, that we continue the McCain Train.

A few thoughts:

1.The GOP has turned a debate on how to fix the economy into a debate on oil prices. Offshore oil drilling has been a diamond in the rough. It sat undiscussed for years and was dug up at the most opportune time. The Republicans are correct. Increasing the supply of oil and stifling oil speculators which are driving up prices is not partisan. It is not ideological. It is fact. John McCain is on the correct side of the issue and Obama, Pelosi, and Reid are too wrapped up in their own ideological bubble to get out of their own way.

1A. My concern is that if oil prices come down, the economy may still slump. Poor investments and the housing bubble are not the GOP’s or Democrats’ fault. They are the fault of the Fed, the global economy, congressional protection of Fannie and Freddie, and the American people. Yes, we are to blame. We have too many damn credit cards, buy too much house, and save too little. If those failures are seen as the real problems, voters may turn misplaced anger at McCain. So we need the Democrats to keep being obstinate on oil…at least until Election Day.

2. I won’t say that war is good, but the conflict in Georgia made foreign policy an issue again. Hillary’s 3AM advertisement almost doomed Obama in Texas and Ohio. Luckily for him, he was so far ahead in delegate counts at that point that it just didn’t matter. McCain actually got the 3 AM ad in real life. President Bush did get the unexpected surprise about the Russian invasion. He did have to make hard choices and he does have to sort it through with the rest of the world. Not just did the issue help, but the responses did, as well. McCain was on-point and able to flaunt his credentials. Obama seemed lost and unwilling to take a stand (Barack afraid to make a choice? NO ‘EFFIN WAY!)
2A. This issue doesn’t have enough legs to get to November. It will slip to the back pages of newspapers behind the Olympics, the Conventions, and Labor Day grillfests. I certainly don’t hope for another international conflict, but McCain must continue to invoke Georgia. He doesn’t need another 9/11 to remind Americans that security is important. The troop surge has worked, he has experience, and he rhetorically crushed Obama when both faced an international crisis.

3. McCain beat Obama at Saddleback. For anyone who doesn’t have Obamania, McCain crushed Obama. The disparity was so bad that Team Obama needed to allege that McCain cheated. When a presidential candidate starts accusing the other of cheating in a forum that took place in a church of all places, it’s getting ugly. I have said this for a while, but McCain is better off-the-cuff. His maverick style plays well and he doesn’t have a problem engaging with people. His life story is remarkable. Obama’s? Not so much. His written speeches are, unfortunately, phenomenal. There is no doubt that he is a great orator. However, he gets into trouble when he doesn’t have a teleprompter. The “bitter” comment came off-the-cuff. His reponse to Georgia was unprepared. His suggestion that abortion is “above his pay grade” clearly was poorly rehearsed.

3A. Rick Warren wasn’t the most objective interviewer. While he asked fair questions identically to each candidate, the emphasis on values in a Christian setting will always favor the Republican. Formal debates will allow Barack to give his scripted responses, in all of their rhetorical glory, behind a podium. However, McCain isn’t afraid of Obama the way Hillary was. He knows that he can beat this young upstart on even ground. And, as the American people repeatedly prove, confidence is everything in presidential debates.

4. The mastermind. De facto campaign manager Steve Schmidt has been phenomenal since taking over for Rick Davis. Under Davis, McCain’s people were largely decentralized and granted a great deal of autonomy. Staffers couldn’t stay on-message because the message changed from day-to-day, office-to-office. Obama wasn’t being attacked and continued to showcase his best attribute, not talking about the issues. In early July, the campaign let Schmidt take over day-to-day operations. Since then, the campaign has been a well-oiled machine. The message was consolidated: McCain has experience and Obama doesn’t know how to lead. The oil drilling issue was all McCain would talk about for weeks. The campaign also used Obama’s celebrity, a huge asset, into a weakness.

So do you want to know why McCain has made a comeback? Because Steve Schmidt turned this:

into this:.

While we were hyped up about Michael Phelps’ chase of athletic immortality, McCain and Obama had interviews with Evangelical Superminister Rick Warren. Warren interviewed Obama for an hour while McCain was held in a green room. He then interviewed McCain with the exact same questions. (More on the media bias and Meet the Press’ Andrea Mitchell’s uncritical report of a lie perpetrated by the Obama campaign forthcoming.)

This style of debate completely levels the playing field, as no candidate has the benefit of suiting his answer based on his opponent’s particular response. At the same time, it does dilute some of the quality, since candidates can’t respond to each other and show the actual clash of opinions and policies.

In any event, by all accounts outside of Obama’s camp, McCain won. And he should have. Even though Barack Obama is seen as the gold standard of political rhetoric (apparently his 2004 speech was enough to ordain him as president), he has struggled in impromptu environments. McCain isn’t the most inspiring orator, but he benefitted from not sharing a stage with Obama, which would have made the oratorical, and aesthetic, contrast much clearer. McCain was playing with a home-field advantage. Evangelicals are one of the largest, most committed demographics to the GOP. McCain’s conservatism, espeically on abortion, made him the fan favorite.

In order to win this election, McCain has to do two things: mitigate Obama’s popular support among starstruck political neophytes and emphasize his values.

1. The incredible effectiveness of the celebrity ad is paying dividends for McCain. Hillary used “elitist” as the buzzword, but McCain couldn’t get it to stick. He went for elitism’s hotter, younger sister “celebrity”. I have a hunch that most Americans were a bit confused about Obama’s trip to Europe and the Middle East. They couldn’t put a finger on why, but they were a bit uncomfortable. McCain filled in the blanks and labeled him as a self-involved, celebrity who doesn’t understand what it means to be president. “Country first” may seem a bit hokey as a campaign slogan, but it fits McCain. 20 year olds who are voting for the first time in a presidential election aren’t going to be wooed by patriotism (except for yours truly). McCain knows that it doesn’t matter. The more hysterical and extremist McCain can paint Obama and his groupies, the better off he’ll be.

2. Obama’s biography is largely confusing. He is bi-racial, born in Hawaii to a bigamist father. He then mysteriously spends a few years in an Islamic school in Indonesia. And then he’s Ivy-league educated Chicago community organizer. There isn’t a narrative there. I’m sorry, Democrats. The tale of a mysterious, elitist globe trotter isn’t that appealing.

John McCain’s narrative is much better. He is a true war hero, enduring years of torture. He has spent decades in the Senate, working tirelessly as he sought to build coalitions of like-minded politicians, regardless of party affiliation. In 2000, he was ruthlessly smeared by the Bush campaign and did not sink to Bush’s (read: Rove’s) level. He adopted a child from Bangladesh in 1993 and housed foreign children in need of medical care.

McCain was fantastic this weekend, in showing off of his values. While it wins over the religious right, touting pro-life credentials will tick off half the country. However, his response to two questions in particular were deeply moving and introspective. First, he explained that his greatest moral failing (go to the 3 minute mark of this video clip) was the failure of his first marriage. McCain took the issue of divorce and his presumed infidelity head on. I applaud him for bringing it up and not trying to hide from it. Second, he addressed his most agonizing moral decision (9 minutes, 25 seconds) was when he accepted continued torture in the face of an offer to be set free. As the son of a high-ranking officer, McCain did not foresake his fellow POWs.

In comparison, Obama seemed young and inexperienced. Somehow drug use and “selfishness” pale in comparison to divorce in terms of moral failings. Worse, Obama’s claim that the decision to not go to war (1 minute 50 second mark) was an agonizing decision is odd because he didn’t make a decision! Obama wasn’t in the US Senate and had no sway over American foreign policy in late 2002! What decision did he have to make? He never voted on authorizing war! Even if we pretend (as Obamaniac Tim Kaine is apt to do) that Obama’s force of personality can will things to happen or not happen, voting for war seems a bit meek compared to enduring additional years of torture as a POW. Nearly every American president has made a tough choice on whether to engage in a particular conflict. Few have shown the intestinal fortitude necessary to endure torture and contrition over a failed marriage. That is the difference in this race. One candidate talks about morality and war, the other has experiences them.