New World Order: Russia Invades Georgia
Pragmatism Rules!, Thinking long-term, Why govern when you can dictate dictums? Tagged alliance, ceasefire, democracy, diplomacy, Georgia, grand strategy, invasion, military, new world order, Obama, olympics, power, Russia, sanctions, south ossetia, Soviet 6 Comments »How delightful that just after my post about the glory of the Olympics, I get to discuss war. American media has been very kind in not reporting various international conflicts that don’t directly involve the United States. However, when a petro-state that has nuclear capability and a checkered past invades a democratic ally, it tends to get some press.
Russia has swiftly come to the military aid of South Ossetia, a separatist region of Georgia. Reminder: Georgia is a former Soviet republic, not just the home of Ty Cobb, sweet tea, and T.I
The question is: what should we do? Well here are the options:
1. Military intervention:
As far as I’m concerned, this is off the table. We absolutely can’t send more American troops into harm’s way. We have lost billions of dollars and thousands of lives in the Middle East, and are spread too thin. More broadly, the United States’ soft power has been crippled by interventions. Proceeding without international consent would destroy whatever shred of diplomatic sway we have.
2. Condemn from afar
Virginia Governor Tom Kaine would have us believe that Barack Obama’s foreign policy is not just effective, but also is causing international change. Governor Kaine said, “And I’m very, very happy that the Senator’s request for a ceasefire has been complied with by President Medvedev.”
Because we all know that the Russian President is making monumental foreign policy decisions based on the words of an American presidential candidate who hasn’t even been officially nominated by his party.
Allow me to yet again remind Barack that HE IS NOT PRESIDENT. Allow me to also remind Tom Kaine that HE IS NOT THE VICE-PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE OF SOMEONE WHO HAS NOT YET BEEN PUT IN OFFICE! Simply hanging out in Washington D.C. and saying that violence is bad is pointless.
3. Sanction
I think that sanctions are the most effective way to deal with quasi-rogue states. I use “quasi” because I believe that Russia is willing to stand in the face of the international consensus, but still has very calculated, rational decisions. However, they simply will not be enacted. Industrialized states are simply too reliant on Russian oil and natural gas. More importantly, Russia knows that it can outlast Europe. A few days of decreased energy revenue is far less painful than sending massive price shocks through the oil and gas market.
4. Prepare an alternate grand strategy
Here is the most effective, and complex, solution. The United States needs to recognize that the former USSR will continue to take any lands it can. Like the board game Risk, you always take neighboring territories that are easily defeated and ill-defended. Therefore, the United States must recreate a situation which counterbalances and deters Russian aggression. A meeting between NATO and allied former Soviet republics is in order.
When NATO was first formed, it was created as a means of mutual protection from a Soviet invasion. I now suggest a NATO backed alliance among emerging Eastern European democracies. Countries like Georgia, Ukraine, and the “-stans” must publicly work together. Using their own political and economic resources, create a union which will oppose Russian entanglements.
I cannot offer guarentees that a rag-tag group of fledging countries can hold off Russian invasions, but I think it is the best available option. At the same time, the world needs to be talking with Russia. Let’s the naiive discourse and put Russia’s intentions on the table. There is enough room in the world for Russia as a regional power. Russia has a large population, military, and economy. It deserves a commensurate amount of influence. Yet, influence is earned. Russia can offer strong leadership, but needs to be kept under the watchful eye of the international community.
Whether it’s former Soviet Republics or the international community, all would be wise to remember Ben Franklin’s words, “we must all hang together, or assuredly we shall hang separately”.




