…the end of man is to know

Nicky Cheese shed some light on the topic of instant runoff voting in his post yesterday. The video at the bottom of his post is pretty sweet and explains IRV quite well.

IRV allows voters to rank their candidates 1st, 2nd, and 3rd. If no candidate has a majority of the vote, then those who voted for the 3rd most popular candidate have their 2nd-choice candidate receive their ballot.

This concept is hard to explain, but easy to show.

Hypothetical of Georgia in 2008:

Obama gets 48%, McCain gets 46%, Barr gets 6%

Under the current system, Obama would win Georgia and all of its 15 electoral votes.

Under an Instant Runoff system, voters would have already decided which candidate is their 2nd and 3rd choices. Since Barr’s Libertarian Party is ideologically closer to the Republicans, let’s assume that 5% of the voters voted Barr, but put McCain as their 2nd choice and 1% of voters voted Barr, but have Obama as the second option.

This recalculates the vote totals to be: McCain 51%, Obama 49%.

The benefit of Instant Runoff Voting is huge. It allows voters to actually reveal their preferences. Though I am deeply dismayed by many of McCain’s policies and thoughts, I feel that I must vote for him to knock off Obama. If I knew that the vote would go to a run off in the even that neither candidate garnered a majority I would be free to vote for my preferred candidate without the pragmatically political ramifications.

To this end, we can get an accurate and non-damaging look at the popularity of candidates (and their parties). Those Georgians who do vote for Bob Barr risk helping Obama. Those who don’t vote for Bob Barr are denying the Libertarian candidate his rightful support.

While Instant Runoff Voting may seem appealing, it will never get off the ground. The reason is intuitive: Democrats and Republicans lose the most from IRV. They also control every level of government and the bodies which enact the switch to IRV. In a great paradox, the only way to achieve IRV is to outright win elections, which is nearly impossible without IRV.

As I have argued many times, the best way to enact large-scale political change is to use pre-existing political machinery. libertarians (small “l”) need to hijack the GOP and dominate the primaries. If they all voted for Ron Paul in the primaries, Bob Barr wouldn’t be so damn attractive. The Democrats’ support of Obama over Hillary, though the race was close, helps to define their party.

I spent the weekend down at Americans for Prosperity’s Defending the American Dream conference down in Austin, TX. The weekend served as a high-quality sounding board for free-marketeers. Some of the highlights:

The Ron Paul people are intensely angry with the Republican Party. Apparently, delegates for Rep. Paul at the TX GOP Convention were shouted down, insulted, and treated like second-class Republicans. They insist that they did not leave the Republican Party. Instead, the GOP left them. This argument certainly carries a great deal of weight, given that spending has greatly increased and our foreign policy has become more interventionist. In any event, the divide between libertarian conservatives and the party-line was noticeable and tense.

Bob Novak spoke very well and intelligently described the political landscape. When I met him, he looked disheveled and had a sizable stain on the vest of his 3-piece suit. After telling him that I attend Northwestern University, he semi-seriously sneered and told that he is an Illini (University of Illinois alum). Good guy, though.

Barry Goldwater Jr. gave a solid speech. He keynoted and delivered surprisingly funny jokes. I got a chance to meet him and he didn’t disappoint. He was the only speaker I met who wanted to shake my hand for the photo. He also was having problems with his glasses during an interview. One of the staffers ran and grabbed him an extra pair. By fate (or intent), the new pair was identical to the classic black, thick glasses of Goldwater’s more famous father. Unfortunately, I lacked the onions to ask Mr. Goldwater Jr. to wear the black glasses in my photo-op.

Can you tell the difference?

I also had the opportunity to track down Libertarian presidential candidate Bob Barr as he checked into the hotel. After chasing him to the elevator, I was able to talk to him briefly. He was dressed in cowboy boots, stylish acid-washed jeans, and a white button-down shirt with black embroidery over the left-breast. Barr also felt it necessary to have roughly 4 of his buttons undone, to show off his plain white t underneath. AFter taking photos, he got very solemn and said, “Now I want to you boys something (I was with fellow Sam Adams Alliance interns at the time) that Charlton Heston told me…” At this point, I was really excited. Bob Barr was going to impart wisdom from Mr. NRA! “Never take photos with two cameras at the same time. Because the flash. The flash. The flash can alter the photos.” So that was Bob Barr. He gave us some b.s. advice about photo-taking. On the bright side, he shook all of our hands and thanked us for our support.

For those who haven’t forgotten that I doubt I will vote for Barr in November, take solace in knowing that I didn’t lie. I said “Representative Barr! Rep. Barr. I’m a big fan and wish you the best of luck in November”. Both of those things are true. I like most of his policies and do hope he does well. I just hope that he doesn’t hijack the Libertarian/libertarian movement and/or deliver Obama the White House.

However, if McCain appears even more unelectable and continues to prove his economic ignorance, I might end up voting for the hippest 59 year-old guy I will ever meet. And then fly in the face of a past blog post.

Is it pragmatic? I’d like to think so.

I get it: Bob Barr is everybody’s homeboy. The Libertarian Party’s presidential nominee is the first 3rd party candidate from the right to have solid political footing since Ross Perot. He is relatively mainstream and is an outlet for disenchanted Republicans who aren’t Obamaniacs. Fellow blogivist, and baller, Nicky Cheese constantly throws up some love to his homeboy (I have now reached my “link to my blog” quota for the week).

While I personally do not agree with Barr on a host of issues, I do see his allure. Barack Obama is selling us on change, but it’s the wrong kind of change. McCain is offering minimal change. Barr represents the potential for monumental shifts in domestic and foreign policy:

1. non-interventionist foreign policy

2. massive tax cuts, and accompanying slashing of government programs

3. drastically increased individual liberties

Even if you completely support Barr’s platform, it is essential that you NOT vote for him. Without further ado, three reasons why Bob Barr does not and should not receive your help at the ballot box.

1. The Nader Effect

For a group which prides itself on rationality, libertarians still think it’s a good idea to NOT vote for a major party candidate?

In 2000, Bush beat Gore in Florida by 537 votes. Green Party candidate Ralph Nader got 97,488 votes in Florida. Nader also got more votes than the winning margin in New Hampshire. For those leftists who voted for Nader, they certainly wanted Gore more than Bush. They wanted their voice heard and shunned the pragmatic option of voting Gore. If less than 1% of Nader’s Floridian supporters checked their egos at the voting booth, Al Gore would have been elected President…now THAT is An Inconvenient Truth!

A similar situation can be traced back to 1992, when Bill Clinton beat George HW Bush thanks to Ross Perot. Clinton won a large electoral victory despite receiving only 43% of the vote. Though I don’t know what new NCLB requirements demand of our youngsters, most 10 year olds can tell you that in a 2-candidate race, 43% never wins.

For Barr supporters, don’t think that this can’t happen again in 2008. The latest poll from Georgia, Barr’s home state, gives McCain a lead of under 2 percent! Barr is polling at 5.6%, roughly three times the gap between the major candidates. To make this truly scary, the poll shows that of the undecided voters, there are 14 times more registered Democrats than Republicans!!! So if you extrapolate the undecideds to vote along traditional party lines, this poll actually projects an Obama victory. EVEN IF Barr’s support doesn’t prevent McCain from winning a must-win state, he might force McCain to spend money he doesn’t have and time he can’t afford to lose campaigning in Georgia. Whether during the campaign or on election night, Barr has the chance to fatally wound McCain’s electoral chances.

Since voting Barr may put the less-desirable Barack Obama, instead of McCain, in office, libertarians should stay away.

2. The Ralph Nader Effect

Most supporters of Bob Barr aren’t actually supporting Bob Barr. They are supporting his platform. This is an absolutely crucial distinction in tracking public opinion. The Libertarian Party is small enough that a single person can completely embody the party. To illustrate my point, most think of Ross Perot, Pat Buchanan, Ralph Nader, and even Strom Thurmond before they can name the Independent, Reform, Green, and Dixiecrat Parties.

The point is that if Barr gains a significant portion of the national vote (let’s say 5%), then the electoral credit goes to Bob Barr more than it goes to the Libertarian Party. Barr’s ability to build up a 3rd party would, in the eyes of the public and Barr himself, supersede the Libertarian Party’s ability to reach the mainstream politically. Having an empowered Barr would allow him to control the LP’s message and use it for his own personal gains a la Ralph Nader.

If truly liberty-minded individuals wanted to spread the MESSAGE instead of the MESSENGER, rallying behind a MAN (not an idea) is not a fruitful endeavor.

3. The Jerry Falwell Effect

If Bob Barr directly or indirectly takes the election away from John McCain, then it will create an irrevocable chasm on the political right. GOP loyalists will find it difficult to reach out to a group which shunned them. The party will be further forced to abandon a “big-tent” strategy.

The party will be further driven into the arms of Evangelicals, who are the only demographic big enough and unified enough to deliver elections. Any attempts to convert the Republican Party into a more libertarian group will be completely undermined.

It is crucial for libertarians and Libertarians to accept that we live in a 2-party system. The electoral college’s winner-take-all format means that there are no partial victories. If you can’t get at least 43% of the vote (Clinton’s ‘92 total), don’t bother trying. The best answer for free-marketeers is take the Republican Party back! Join the party, mend fences, and become a more valuable asset than Evangelicals. If the libertarian message resonates with the masses and can paint an electoral map red, then the party will start to nominate, and elect, libertarians.

Since libertarians, and definitely Libertarians, need a larger political infrastructure to truly put one of their own in the White House, Bob Barr CANNOT get your vote this November.

Besides, do you really want to help elect a guy who will be confused with a cartoon character by most Americans?

How fitting that Babar is, of all animals, an ELEPHANT (the physical representation of the Republican Party)! Coincidence? I’d like to think not. Bob Barr and Babar both call on everyone to the political right to elect John McCain.

Remember: discretion is the better part of valor. And pragmatism. Pragmatism, too.