…the end of man is to know

10. Sarah Palin has named her kids Bristol, Piper, Track, Willow, and Trig.

9. She has taken on corrupt Alaskan bureaucrats. She has angered Senator Ted Stevens and strongly supported her Lieutenant Governor’s bid to unseat 18-term congressman Don Young in the Republican Primary.

8. In light of McCain’s health problems: Sarah Palin runs marathons.

7. She is a moose hunter. Not a Bull-Moose hunter, but actual Moose. (Mooses? Meese? Moosen?)

6. Palin’s husband works as a commerical fisherman and is in a labor union…can’t much more blue-collar than that.

5. Palin’s husband is a champion snowmobile racer, winning the Tesoro Iron Dog, billed as the world’s longest snowmobile race, four times.

4. Her eldest son, Track, will be going to Iraq with the US Army next month, not unlike the other VP candidate

3. In 1984, Palin was named Miss Wasilla and runner-up as Miss Alaska.

2. Her youngest son, Trig, was born in April with Down’s Syndrome. Palin has made a point to talk about her son and her decision to not have an abortion despite knowing about Trig’s condition during pregnancy.

And….the best thing about Sarah Palin is:

Her parents were called this morning by their son-in-law to listen to the radio for a special announcement. They almost missed hearing about their daughter’s VP nomination because they were *drumroll* CARIBOU HUNTING.

Lest there be no doubt: the GOP has returned to the party of small government, increased transparency, and support the working-class!

McCAIN-PALIN 2008!

YES HE CAN! YES SHE CAN! YES THEY CAN!

In what is the most “No ‘Effing Way” of every “No ‘Effing Way” I have written, McCain has pulled a rabbit out of his hat. Everyone had Romney, Pawlenty, or Lieberman as the top 3 with Condi, Cantor, and Kay Bailey Hutchinson in the second tier. Instead, he completely hoodwinks the entire country and launches Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.

I always thought she was a great pick, but her lack of media coverage and speculation made me think it wasn’t going to happen. Serious props to The Midnight Ride, who called Palin as a VP pick in late June. Also, Madison Classical Liberal talked about her in early July. Finally, Extremism in Defense of Liberty also called it in late June. I privately talked to Extremism, Midnight Ride, and The Silent Majority about it, but I didn’t have the onions. I was weak and didn’t want to the risk in formally endorsing her. I was wrong.

Palin is a TREMENDOUS pick for a ton of reasons, increasing in legitimacy:

1. She is a woman. There is no bigger middle finger to Obama’s “post-racial” campaign than putting a woman on the ticket. It’s hard to argue you have a monopoly on change when Palin is the first woman with a serious shot to be in the White House (no, Geraldine Ferraro does not count).

1A. Moreover, this could get the Hillary supporters. Clintonites have long argued that Obama and the media were sexist and unfairly cruel to Hillary. Now that Clinton is out of the race, female voters who want to fight sexism will be drawn to Palin. She has a son with Down’s Syndrome and is a former beauty queen. Palin is feminine and has definite appeal to disgruntled female voters looking for a role model.

1B. Palin is tough to beat in a debate. As someone who spent 5 years in speech and debate, I would dread going toe-to-toe with a female, especially an accomplished and intelligent one. It is hard to be a male and go offensive against a female. The fact of the matter is that anytime a guy gets aggressive, he runs the risk of being perceived as a know-it-all sexist pig. While Palin has to face the prospect of being seen as an icy bitch if she gets aggressive, this puts a huge burden on Biden in the VP debate.

1 C. Palin is EXTREMELY attractive. This is a stupid reason. Okay, it’s a really stupid reason. At the end of the day, thousands upon thousands of males will vote for “The Hot Chick”. I think it is exceedingly shallow to vote based on aesthetics, but if it means helping out the conservative movement, I won’t resist. Behold, the new White House Hottie:

2. Palin has real conservative credentials. Any Evangelicals who didn’t trust McCain, must vote GOP. Any small-government libertarians don’t have to waste a vote on Bob Barr. Palin took on the most corrupt state in the country, Alaska, at a time that what was really hard. Ted Stevens is terribly corrupt. The Murkowski family is a dynasty of corrupt, incompetent leaders. Palin has gotten rid of superfluous government expenditures and slashed the budget. She has sound energy policy and is the ultimate on how to reduce oil prices.

3. She balances out this ticket in a way that no other candidate could. Male-female. Old-young. Experienced-fresh. Senator-Governor. There is nothing “missing” from this ticket. There is no weak link that applies to both candidates. They have strengths which back up the other’s weaknesses. Even if Obama wants to hammer Palin on experience, it’s tough-sledding. Obama has 3.5 years of experience in the Senate and Palin as 1.5 years experience as Governor. That difference is relatively small. Also, Palin has been in the City Council from ‘92-’96 and served on Alaska’s Oil & Gas Commission, before resigning in protest of the lack of ethics. She is on the young side, but has achieved great things.

Perhaps Palin’s (and McCain’s) greatest achievement? Taking ALL of the wind out of Obama’s sails, bumping him from the top of the headlines and making this race even more competitive.

Alaska, one of the reddest of red states, is now going to turn blue in 2 key races this November. Why? Because Alaskan Republicans are so close-minded and loyalist that they nominated two sitting ducks.

In the Senate race, Republican Ted Stevens is facing jail time over corruption charges. This after he has been widely ridiculed for being too old and too out of touch. Suggesting that the internet is a “series of tubes” certainly didn’t help. Naturally, Stevens won his primary last night with over 63% of the vote. Most Alaskan Republicans think that a potential criminal is the best representative of their party.

Stevens is trailing Democratic opponent, MarkBegich, by 13 points. Race over. Give the seat to the Dems right now, electoral projectors.

In the house race (note: Alaska only has one House seat due to its low population), reformer Sean Parnell trails old party hack, Don Young by a 1,000 votes with only 9 precincts remaining. This may need a recount, but this race should not have been close. Parnell is the Lieutenant Governor under the EXTREMELY popular Sarah Palin. He has fought to clean up Alaskan government and has served on multiple committees in the Alaska Legislature. Don Young is an 18-term congressman (yes, 18 terms. He has been in congress almost as long as William Ayers has been a terrorist!). He has engaged in a few shady, but not illegal, dealings. He is a typical do-nothing bureaucrat. While Parnell received endorsments from the National Review, Club for Growth, and Governor Palin, Don Young’s sole endorsement was from Mike Huckabee’s PAC. When two legitimate, conservative organizations and a highly popular governor support taking an incumbent out in a primary, that should have been a signal to Alaskan Republicans. Instead, they were sheep-like in their biannual support of Young.

If Alaskan Republicans are a microcosm, the GOP is in serious trouble. The party has lost the spirit and enthusiasm of 1994. Party loyalists and hacks are being prepared for the slaughter at the hands of power-hungry Democrats, moderates, and disaffected conservatives.

We need to look at candidates and then make decisions. Candidates define parties, not the other way around! If this means voting for a small-government, libertarian Democrat, so be it. This is not about getting 537 (435 in house, 100 in senate, and 2 in White House) people with an “R” affixed to their name on C-SPAN broadcasts. This is about getting 537 people who support freedom, liberty, and the American way. Democrats have never understood that concept. I’m starting to fear we don’t anymore.

Edit: This post has been edited for better accuracy. However, I will not mention the name of the insignificant Democratic House candidate. He is of no consequence since a competent Republican could easy trounce any Democrat and any competent Democrat will trounce Don Young.

During May, June, and July, Obama was enjoying near double-digit leads over McCain nationally. Coming off of a hardfought victory over Hil-dog, Obama had all the momentum in the world. He was a fresh face with new ideas and oozed charisma. He believed that he could change not just the world, but the electoral map. Obama used Howard Dean’s 50-state strategy and set up outposts in hostile territory. Though the election is still 3 months away, it appears that Obama has failed. In his boundless hubris, he has failed to understand that you can’t make an entire country blue. The old swing states of 2000 and 2004 will be the same deciding votes in November.

First, we should look at what states Obama targeted and why. The most fun is Alaska. One of the reddest states, Alaska supports Republicans under any and all circumstances. If not for potential jail time, Ted Stevens was up for re-election. The same guy who has been using federal pork for Alaskans and thought the internet was a “series of tubes” ran virtually unopposed for decades. I would say that Obama thought he could take advantage of McCain’s opposition to drilling in ANWR, but so does Obama!

Obama also thought he could do well in the South. North and South Carolina and Georgia were up for grabs for about .3 seconds. The huge amount of unregistered black voters was a potential boon for Barack. But there are two small problems: blacks don’t vote and are outnumbered by whites. Southern whites overwhelmingly support McCain and the African-American population represents a relatively small portion of likely voters. So the Solid South is yet again solid…this time in the GOP column.

Obama has also looked at the badlands area: Montana and the Dakotas. He’s still in the mix in those states, but McCain is the favorite. Since these states have so few electoral votes and such sparse populations, building political infrastructure is next to impossible. Frequent visits to Bozeman, Montana and Bismarck, North Dakota are inefficient. These voters have lifestyles and preferences that are not identical to suburban Virginians or inner-city Philadelphians. Obama has a serious problem tapping into a voter-base that is largely conservative and only votes for a moderate Democrat in the face of a weak GOP candidate and a strong party candidate (such was the case in ‘92 and ‘96, when Clinton did very well in the Badlands). Yet, if Obama is doing so much better than a weakened McCain, he doesn’t need the Badlands’ electoral votes anyway. Huge margins beget upsets in traditional non-swing states. That isn’t politics, that’s history.

The Four Corners Region (NM, NV, and CO) are not new battlegrounds, so I award Obama no points for bravery. The area is getting an infusion of Californians and Hispanics, both of which have liberal tendencies. If McCain wasn’t so good (and Obama so bad) at courting the Hispanic vote, these three states would already be in the Democratic column. Any race where the GOP can effectively neutralize the Hispanic tendency to vote Democrat offers a huge advantage for the Republican.

McCain, with fewer resources, elected to not bother defending these states.

So what states are the big tickets and who has to win what?

Using the Cook Political Report, Obama is up 240-174 with 124 EVs in play. So if Obama can win at least 30 of the 124 remaining EVs, he takes the White House. In the interest of making the race competitive, I’ll give McCain any “toss up” state where he currently has a lead (MO, FL, NC, VA) for a total of 56 EVs.

We are now at Obama: 240, McCain 240, Undecided: 68. After giving McCain Nevada and Obama Iowa and Colorado it is 256-245 with only OH and MI left. If Obama wins either OH or MI, it’s over. If McCain can pull out OH and MI he wins 282-256. Yet, if McCain dominates the rust belt, but loses Virginia, it’s 269-269. At that point, bust out your Civics textbook, because we got a tie!